CoreMacro
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
A deflationary shock from shrinking exports will ripple throughout the Korean economy. We are downgrading the KOSPI from overweight to neutral and reiterating a long position in 10-year domestic bonds, currency unhedged.
A high US tariff and the lingering uncertainties on the US-India trade deal will hurt investors sentiment. This and contracting corporate profits will push share prices lower. Stay underweight Indian stocks.
MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise.
Microsoft has gone up in a worryingly near-perfect straight line with dimension 1.098. Take August off before making a big commitment to stocks. Plus: a new tactical trade is to go long USD/HUF.
We will only move to a fully defensive stance if the “whites of the recession’s eyes” appear. So far, they have not. We will be increasingly looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when the next turning point in markets may come.
We apply a systematic approach to investing based on economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises to the foreign exchange market. The signals from this framework are broadly consistent with the tactical views of our FX strategists, which anticipate a pause in the USD’s decline and a partial reversal of the recent euro strength.
Although we think the economy is weaker than investors realize, it has remained resilient and we will not fight the tape forever. If clear signs of a recession do not emerge over the next six weeks, we will drop our defensive recommendations.
Consensus sees one final ECB cut; we argue two are coming as deflationary forces are building in Europe. Dive in for the trade map: falling Bund yields, tighter peripheral spreads, and a euro primed for a 2026 rebound.
