CoreMacro
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
Colombian markets will be torn between expectations of future orthodox policies and the reality of a worsening macro backdrop in the next 12 months. To balance risks, we are upgrading Colombian equities, local bonds, and sovereign credit from underweight to neutral versus their respective EM benchmarks.
US tariffs will not derail the low-inflation economic recovery underway in the Euro Area. Investors should overweight European equities, focusing on parts of the market more insulated from tariffs.
Data received since we began reassessing our bearish stance supported our notion that the economy is not as strong as the investor consensus perceives. But the softness will likely have to intensify in July and August to preserve our defensive recommendations.
The BoE is easing, but risks falling behind. Labor and growth cracks are starting to emerge, and the Bank may soon be forced to move more decisively. This report outlines why gilts remain a buy and sterling’s path is diverging vs. USD and EUR.
US TMT stocks have been delivering miraculous profit performance. Yet, outside US large tech, global equity fundamentals and technicals are troublesome. A near-term USD rebound should be faded.
Expectations for US inflation at 3.3 percent are inconsistent with expectations for the Fed to slash rates, so one of these expectations is likely wrong. We describe how to play this mispricing. Plus, a new position is to go overweight global consumer discretionary (RXI).
Chinese stock prices have significantly decoupled from the country’s business cycle, with the full impact of US tariffs yet to be realized. The valuation-driven equity gains without a cyclical economic recovery will be vulnerable to a reversal.
We maintain our 12-month US recession probability at 60%. However, until the “whites of the recession’s eyes” are more clearly visible, we would refrain from moving to a fully defensive stance.