Valuations
MacroQuant recommends a modest overweight position in equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has downgraded oil to neutral, and is bullish on copper and gold.
For this screener report, we explore opportunities in a CapEx premium divergence trade, a valuation convergence trade, and European Defense Stocks.
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has upgraded oil and copper to overweight, and is bullish on gold.
MacroQuant has downgraded equities to underweight, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is still bullish on gold.
This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.
Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day).
And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.
Indian stocks have further downside in absolute terms as profits disappoint. Their underperformance versus the EM equity benchmark, however, is late, which warrants a shift from underweight to neutral allocation.
MacroQuant is tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold and copper.
This week’s Special Report evaluates the reward and risk in corporate bonds. We address the question of whether low expected excess returns today are justified by low risk or an example of overvaluation.
Broad GenAI adoption and monetization, alongside falling inference costs, should make hyperscalers’ and enterprise investments worthwhile. While the GenAI boom echoes the dot-com era, it differs in key ways: Valuations are elevated but not extreme, and the rally is still underpinned by solid earnings growth. With few warning signs flashing red, the bull market likely has further to run, though a period of consolidation is overdue.
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend, our perspective on the yen, gold and other commodities, and much more.