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This report addresses five frequently asked questions from our Greater China clients over the past few months.
Ebola remains one of the world's deadliest viral diseases, but it is far less transmissible than COVID-19 or influenza. The most likely outcome remains containment rather than a global pandemic.
South Africa’s ambitious reform agenda will take time to bear fruit. Meanwhile, the country faces a stagflationary squeeze as inflation rises while growth slows. South African stocks, bonds, and currency are all vulnerable.
On Friday, the MacroQuant equity z-score fell to -1.01, below the critical -1 threshold that often coincided with bear markets in the past. With that in mind, today, I am downgrading stocks to a slight underweight on both a 3-month and a 12-month horizon.
Today’s ECB rate hike is not the beginning of a hiking cycle. Growth concerns will soon move to the forefront of ECB policy decisions, preventing further tightening.
Rising volatility in Korean markets captures a late-cycle surge in which euphoria and drawdown risk are rising together. While KOSPI momentum remains intact, the bigger opportunity may be emerging in the increasingly mispriced KRW, which could rally meaningfully as portfolio flow headwinds fade.
Although the multi-decade surge in the value of households’ equity holdings has made US activity more vulnerable to a stock selloff, the latest income, spending and employment data suggest that consumption growth can carry on at a 2% inflation-adjusted pace.
The AI boom will increase inflation in the near term and could also raise it over the long term. The Fed’s reluctance to hike rates is understandable, but it risks amplifying what may already be a brewing stock market bubble.
