CoreMacro

Special Report

Risk assets in EM/China and cyclical commodities will sell off in H1 2026. A shift toward aggressive policy stimulus in China and a clear improvement in global manufacturing are needed to produce durable rallies in EM/China risk assets and the prices of energy and industrial metals.

Special Report

The bull versus bear battlelines are drawn for 2026: The friendliest Fed meets the most concentrated stock market rally ever. This last report of the year goes through the 10 key views for 2026 that emanate from this fascinating setup.

Special Report

Our 2026 Outlook presents our five key views for Europe’s macro landscape and markets in 2026 —a year poised to reveal the true strength of the recovery.

Special Report

The Kingdom faces a troika of global factors in the next 12-18 months: (1) US policy rates will be cut considerably; (2) the US dollar will depreciate significantly; and (3) crude prices will remain low. How should investors position themselves in this market?

The high-frequency Joshi Rule confirms that the US labour market is holding up. Equity investors should regard 5-10 percent selloffs as tactical buying opportunities. Bond investors should stay underweight US duration. Plus, a new high-conviction trade is to go overweight the 30-year German bund versus the 30-year US T-bond.

Special Report

In this report, we present an AI investment framework for long-term investors. We conclude that an “AI Winter” is likely to begin over the next one-to-three years. Investors should strategically favor value over growth stocks.

We remain bullish on the alpha-generating potential of Vietnamese stocks over the medium and long term. But our negative outlook on global/EM beta makes us bearish on this bourse in absolute terms over the medium term.

Japanese financial assets will finally have unfettered access to outsized returns. This performance will come in fits and starts, but we are comfortable laying our cards down on buying the yen, and Japanese industrial stocks.

There is an old joke about the drunk who searches for his keys under the light post. When asked why he is looking for his keys there, he replies that “this is where the light is.”

Mexican equity and fixed-income markets will continue outperforming their EM counterparts, regardless of whether global risk assets sell off or not. Also, we recommend a new trade: long Mexican stocks / short the S&P 500.