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Webcast Replay

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 3

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, SVP, Sales

Key topics discussed:

  • Sizing the coming IPO wave
  • IPO expectations and market peaks – 40+ years of evidence
  • What to expect from market and sector performance  
  • Supply and demand  – the absorption question
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Report
Based on 40 years of history and some 12,000 IPOs, the evidence suggests that the coming IPO wave may dampen forward market returns, mute further multiple expansion, and possibly interrupt sector trends. That said, even monster-sized IPOs are unlikely to trigger a sustained bear market: only about 2...
08 Jun 2026
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Report
Although the multi-decade surge in the value of households’ equity holdings has made US activity more vulnerable to a stock selloff, the latest income, spending and employment data suggest that consumption growth can carry on at a 2% inflation-adjusted pace....
08 Jun 2026
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Report
The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio outperformed its benchmark through May, returning 3.88%, while its SPY benchmark returned 2.25%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was weaker than the benchmark, with USHQ underperforming by approx. 86bps....
05 Jun 2026
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Report
The AI boom will increase inflation in the near term and could also raise it over the long term. The Fed’s reluctance to hike rates is understandable, but it risks amplifying what may already be a brewing stock market bubble. ...
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Report
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2026....
04 Jun 2026
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Report
The magnitude of US tech/AI capital spending already rivals past bubble thresholds, threatening hyperscalers’ future returns on capital. There are echoes of previous market tops. Our preferred overlay strategy for equity portfolios remains long semiconductor producers / short hyperscalers....
04 Jun 2026
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Webcast Replay

Since 2018, we’ve published what we call “The Most Important of All Unimportant Forecasts” – applying the same macro framework we use for markets and the global economy to predict the World Cup. Now, what started as a one-off idea has become a tradition.

We hosted a webcast to walk through the making of the report – how the model has evolved, how we combine quantitative analysis with macro and narrative insights, and why football turns out to be a surprisingly good lens for top-down thinking.

We also shared our final tournament prediction – and attendees will hear it first.

What we covered:
•How the report started – and how it’s improved each cycle
•The blend of data, narrative, and macro behind the model
•Why football lends itself to a top-down framework
•Our final 2026 World Cup call (revealed live)

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Report
Four years after correctly calling Argentina's triumph, the Most Important of all Unimportant Forecasts returns. Who does our model crown in 2026? Let's find out....
04 Jun 2026
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Report
Bears will fold like lawn chairs this summer as traffic returns to Hormuz, allowing markets to overcome seasonal malaise. But we are starting to see how the expansion ends. A macro brew of global central bank tightening due to stickier-than-expected inflation, negative second derivative in AI capex,...
AI US
02 Jun 2026