Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

We are constructive on equities in 2026, as monetary easing, fiscal support, GenAI-related capex, and strong earnings growth are unequivocally positive for the asset class. Valuations are extended, but concerns about a bubble are overstated. Despite the favorable backdrop, we expect the S&P 500 to return only 5–10%, ending 2026 between 7,200 and 7,500.

We had a good year in 2025. For two years now, we have been unabashedly bullish, proving that the GeoMacro framework works.

Special Report

Institutional investors continue to avoid US Real Estate, but fundamentals and valuations are aligned for a compelling multi-year entry point. As one of our highest conviction overweights, we remain bullish on Office, Industrial, and Retail – Multifamily still doesn’t make the cut.

Special Report

We present our five key views for global fixed income markets in 2026. A year that will see the global easing cycle come to an end.

Washington’s new strategy sheds liberal idealism for hard-edged multipolar realism: spheres of influence accepted, allies chided, Asia red lines firm, Latin America elevated, and AI-plus-digital assets crowned as national-security sinews. The result is a world steadied by US offshore balancing – an unexpectedly bullish backdrop for emerging markets in the years ahead.

Special Report

Our 2026 Outlook presents our five key views for Europe’s macro landscape and markets in 2026 —a year poised to reveal the true strength of the recovery.

September’s weak consumer spending data challenge the K-shaped recovery narrative and suggest that spending will slow to match already-weak employment growth.

The US High Quality portfolio outperformed its benchmark through November, returning 1.13%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 0.08%. Our US High Quality SMID portfolio experienced a decline in performance this month. The portfolio returned -2.27%, underperforming its MSCI US Small and Mid Cap benchmark by 357bps.

We got Trump's tariff shock and backtracking correct and predicted Israel's attack on Iran. But we missed the China rally — and there is still no Ukraine ceasefire.

Bitcoin’s recent volatility masks a deeper story – the widest disconnect from traditional macro drivers since 2022. With sentiment now deeply negative and institutional demand still building, the conditions for a realignment with fundamentals are falling into place.