Latest from BCA Research
The high-frequency Joshi Rule confirms that the US labour market is holding up. Equity investors should regard 5-10 percent selloffs as tactical buying opportunities. Bond investors should stay underweight US duration. Plus, a new high-conviction trade is to go overweight the 30-year German bund versus the 30-year US T-bond.
We remain bullish on the alpha-generating potential of Vietnamese stocks over the medium and long term. But our negative outlook on global/EM beta makes us bearish on this bourse in absolute terms over the medium term.
On purely macroeconomic terms, the US economy appears to be heading towards a recession. But the whole point of our framework – GeoMacro – is to forecast the interplay between politics, geopolitics, and macro. The White House is taking control of the Fed in 2026 and, together, they will look to re-lever the US consumer.
Japanese financial assets will finally have unfettered access to outsized returns. This performance will come in fits and starts, but we are comfortable laying our cards down on buying the yen, and Japanese industrial stocks.
There is an old joke about the drunk who searches for his keys under the light post. When asked why he is looking for his keys there, he replies that “this is where the light is.”
The real reason behind the overt support by the US of Argentina’s experiment is far less exotic and yet also far more lucrative for global investors.