CoreMacro
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
We were stopped out of our defensive asset allocation recommendations last Thursday, when the S&P 500 closed above 6,100, but our reading of the labor market tea leaves still supports a bearish fundamental view.
Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive. We are not there yet.
President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.
Political instability combined with the maths of debt sustainability is much more concerning in France than in either the UK or the US. Go long UK gilts versus French OATs and go tactically long GBP/USD.
Can Singapore stocks continue the bull run into 2025? What does the city-state’s manufacturing and export outlook foretell? Is the Singapore dollar still competitive? See our analysis and investment recommendations in today’s report.
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
Markets initially celebrated the election results, but the party was less festive than it was in 2016-17. The macro backdrop is not as forgiving for deportations, reflation and tariffs as it was eight years ago, and the incoming administration could face a rougher ride than it did in its first go-round.
