CoreMacro

MacroQuant has downgraded equities to underweight, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is still bullish on gold.

Special Report

Every year, the Global Asset Allocation team compiles a list of our favorite books, essays, and articles from our strategists ahead of the holiday season. This year, we focus on writings by practitioners in the world of finance, business, and beyond. While diverse in their backgrounds, one theme stands out: Adaptation.

Lots of data out today, most of which point to a global economy that is cooling but not (yet) freezing.

Following this weekend's election, we reiterate an overweight stance across Chilean risk assets relative to EM benchmarks and advise buying local currency government bonds (currency unhedged).

Special Report

Weak, narrowly concentrated job growth in fields that pay poorly bodes ill for the economy, but we enter 2026 recommending benchmark allocations because we are wary of the potential for an AI-driven meltup. Investors should bide their time before turning defensive.

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust. Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day). And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.

Special Report

Risk assets in EM/China and cyclical commodities will sell off in H1 2026. A shift toward aggressive policy stimulus in China and a clear improvement in global manufacturing are needed to produce durable rallies in EM/China risk assets and the prices of energy and industrial metals.

Special Report

The bull versus bear battlelines are drawn for 2026: The friendliest Fed meets the most concentrated stock market rally ever. This last report of the year goes through the 10 key views for 2026 that emanate from this fascinating setup.

Special Report

Our 2026 Outlook presents our five key views for Europe’s macro landscape and markets in 2026 —a year poised to reveal the true strength of the recovery.

Special Report

The Kingdom faces a troika of global factors in the next 12-18 months: (1) US policy rates will be cut considerably; (2) the US dollar will depreciate significantly; and (3) crude prices will remain low. How should investors position themselves in this market?