Financial Markets
There is a thin line between geopolitical risk and Enlightenment, just ask Europe in the seventeenth century. The Middle East is exhibiting both. Investors are over-indexing on the negative – which has not impacted the investible universe – and ignoring the positives.
MacroQuant’s US equity z-score is dangerously close to the -1 threshold. Moves below that threshold have reliably coincided with equity bear markets in the past. As such, MacroQuant recommends an underweight on stocks, offset by an overweight on bonds and cash.
Tech-led momentum is driving the S&P 500 to new highs despite weak growth and rising cyclical risks. The rally has accelerated following a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions and ongoing hopes for positive trade developments. Momentum signals confirm…
Regional Fed surveys confirm sluggish US manufacturing and tame inflation, supporting long duration positioning outside the US. The June Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey missed expectations, rising to -12.7 from -15.3, still deep in contraction. New orders…
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Weak consumption data and deteriorating labor market signals reinforce our defensive stance. The May US Personal Income & Outlays report showed real personal spending declining 0.3% m/m, missing expectations, while core PCE inflation came in slightly…
Foreign investors are selling US assets. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Juan Correa, Chief Global Asset Allocation Strategist. Splitting cumulative year-to-date EUR/USD returns by trading session reveals a clear pattern: The dollar weakens during…
Our Emerging Markets strategists highlight that systematic equity dilution has meaningfully eroded EM shareholder returns, explaining the long-term disconnect between profit growth and EPS. Over the past 18 years, EM companies have more than doubled their…
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.
A dovish early Fed nominee would increase volatility in rates and FX as markets reassess the credibility of US monetary policy. News reports indicate the Trump administration is considering nominating a Fed successor ahead of the end of Chairman Powell’s…