Miroslav Aradski | BCA Research

GeoMacro CoreMacro

Beyond Hormuz: Five Chokepoints That Investors Should Monitor

Not all chokepoints are equally dangerous. How we adapt to a shock is often underappreciated. Besides the ongoing Hormuz shock, investors should pay attention to Taiwanese chip production and Chinese rare earth minerals.

Miroslav Aradski 15 Oct 2026

Essentials

Tracking US Growth Momentum And Price Pressures

Regional Fed manufacturing surveys cooled in September but still point to solid growth. With today's Dallas Fed release, all five manufacturing surveys are in for September, and four of the five reported a moderation in their headline index. The regional…

Miroslav Aradski 28 Sep 2026

Essentials

Fallout From Higher US Interest Rates: Housing And Beyond

Housing is where higher rates will bite, but the effect on other parts of the economy and the equity market is more nuanced. Since early 2023, indicators of housing activity such as housing starts, permits, sales, and residential investment have gone nowhere.…

Miroslav Aradski 24 Sep 2026

Essentials

How Much Do Oil Prices Matter For US Yields?

Oil prices and US Treasury yields have moved in lockstep this year, but oil matters less for US yields than the correlation suggests. The joint rise is not purely a coincidence. Higher oil prices play a role in the hawkish repricing of the Fed's policy path,…

Miroslav Aradski 23 Sep 2026

Essentials

Sticky Or Not?

Underlying US inflation remains sticky, with a broad composite measure holding about 0.5 percentage points above the level consistent with the Fed’s price stability target. Those who claim that inflation has been somewhat sticky as of late are not imagining…

Miroslav Aradski 31 Aug 2026

US
Inflation

CoreMacro

US Housing Sector: Affordability Is The Key

The US residential real estate market remains soft. While the decline in mortgage rates is a positive, it is too early to bet on housing becoming the engine of growth for the US economy this year.

Miroslav Aradski 05 Feb 2026

Essentials

Getting A Fix On The AI Capex Boom

In Section II, Doug and Global Investment Strategy’s Miroslav Aradski consider the implications of the AI investment boom.

Doug Peta, Miroslav Aradski 30 Oct 2025

Essentials

November 2025

In Section I, Doug explains how the sharp upward revision to second-quarter consumption in the final GDP estimate has reduced our recession conviction and could lead us to abandon our recession call altogether. The situation is fluid, though, as typified by the striking weakness of stocks in consumer-facing and cyclically exposed subindustries. In Section II, Doug and Global Investment Strategy’s Miroslav Aradski consider the implications of the AI investment boom.

Doug Peta, Miroslav Aradski 30 Oct 2025

CoreMacro

Tracking The AI Capex Boom

The AI capex boom is having a measurable impact on the economy but, so far, it is more muted than often cited.

Miroslav Aradski 25 Sep 2025

CoreMacro

A Softcore Downturn

It may take several months for the tariff shock and policy uncertainty to filter through the real economy, but survey-based data are already sending a warning. Equities have priced in a lot of good news, and investors are too sanguine about the risk of a US recession.

Miroslav Aradski 08 May 2025