Miroslav Aradski
Strategist
-
Tracking US Growth Momentum And Price Pressures
Regional Fed manufacturing surveys cooled in September but still point to solid growth. With today's Dallas Fed release, all five manufacturing surveys are in for September, and four of the five reported a moderation in their headline index. The regional…
-
Fallout From Higher US Interest Rates: Housing And Beyond
Housing is where higher rates will bite, but the effect on other parts of the economy and the equity market is more nuanced. Since early 2023, indicators of housing activity such as housing starts, permits, sales, and residential investment have gone nowhere.…
-
How Much Do Oil Prices Matter For US Yields?
Oil prices and US Treasury yields have moved in lockstep this year, but oil matters less for US yields than the correlation suggests. The joint rise is not purely a coincidence. Higher oil prices play a role in the hawkish repricing of the Fed's policy path,…
-
Sticky Or Not?
Underlying US inflation remains sticky, with a broad composite measure holding about 0.5 percentage points above the level consistent with the Fed’s price stability target. Those who claim that inflation has been somewhat sticky as of late are not imagining…
-
US Housing Sector: Affordability Is The Key
The US residential real estate market remains soft. While the decline in mortgage rates is a positive, it is too early to bet on housing becoming the engine of growth for the US economy this year.
-
Getting A Fix On The AI Capex Boom
In Section II, Doug and Global Investment Strategy’s Miroslav Aradski consider the implications of the AI investment boom.
-
November 2025
In Section I, Doug explains how the sharp upward revision to second-quarter consumption in the final GDP estimate has reduced our recession conviction and could lead us to abandon our recession call altogether. The situation is fluid, though, as typified by the striking weakness of stocks in consumer-facing and cyclically exposed subindustries. In Section II, Doug and Global Investment Strategy’s Miroslav Aradski consider the implications of the AI investment boom.
-
Tracking The AI Capex Boom
The AI capex boom is having a measurable impact on the economy but, so far, it is more muted than often cited.
-
A Softcore Downturn
It may take several months for the tariff shock and policy uncertainty to filter through the real economy, but survey-based data are already sending a warning. Equities have priced in a lot of good news, and investors are too sanguine about the risk of a US recession.
-
How Much Does The Rest Of The World Owe America
The Trump administration posits that the world owes the US for the provision of its security. In this report, we perform a quantitative analysis to come up with a naïve estimate of the cost of that peace. More importantly (and more seriously), our qualitative assessment argues that save for a number of frontline countries that rely on the US defense umbrella, the vast majority of the world faces manageable security threats due to the complex multipolar global environment and a growing number of alternatives to the US security blanket.