GeoMacro

The Buenos Aires election results are a setback for the government's political momentum, but not the endgame. Our long-term bullish view remains in place, but short-term investors should stay on the sidelines in the near run.

Several clients have asked the GeoMacro team what we expect the Trump administration to focus on over the next 12 months. These will be critical 12 months as the midterm electoral campaign will be in full swing following Labor Day next year.

Investors will be disappointed if they buy into the China rally and then Russia escalates the war in Ukraine.

Renewables’ role in power-hungry data centers is overstated. Natural gas will fill clean electricity’s data center supply shortfall, particularly in the US and Europe.

In the Alpha report, we maintain our bullishness on the equity market. We are optimistic that the cash-fueled cycle will evolve into a leverage-driven one, with the AI capex cycle acting as the "bridge" between the two. Our view is easily falsifiable. If the 10-year yield starts moving against us, we will pull the plug on the cycle. One reason to fret is that tariff revenue has now become critical to the equity bull market. Without it, bonds could riot.

Trump, the Fed, the Russo-China bloc, Venezuela, and France are all seeing developments that imply some contrarian tactical views: Long USD, overweight US versus Europe, overweight Europe versus China, and short oil.

Special Report

Peru’s April 2026 election will inject political volatility, but fundamentals are strong and we are constructive. Buy gold mining equities and gold on dips to capture the supportive global cycle and wait for a more attractive entry point for Peruvian assets.

The media is missing the big picture: the war is already contained. The falling oil price confirms that. We fully expect cold feet and volatility incidents in the very near term but there is only a 5% chance of Russia triggering a larger war with NATO – and that is what really matters.

President Donald Trump and his counterpart President Vladimir Putin have met at an air force base in Alaska. The backdrop? America’s shiny F-22 Raptors ominously gleaming on the tarmac, a clear show of force by the US. A reminder that President Trump may be quite friendly with Putin, but that he will not hesitate to impose pain on Moscow if the Kremlin keeps dragging out the conflict in Ukraine.

Trump’s political capital is near its peak. But near-term optimism will give way to a new round of volatility. Contrary to expectations, the USD may benefit.