FICC

Special Report

FX often looks random because no single model dominates across regimes. We lay out our long-term framework anchored in valuation, productivity, external balances, and the fiscal-monetary mix to identify when currencies are likely to mean-revert and where the long-run risk-reward is asymmetric.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2026.

The war in Iran is disrupting global oil and LNG flows and remains a threat to regional energy infrastructure. Energy price risks remain skewed to the upside over the near term.

Policy risks are set to fade just as markets underestimate hawkish Fed repricing and crowd into short-USD positions, setting the stage for a tactical dollar rebound into the election cycle. Go long USD/CHF to capture the rate differential and receding policy uncertainty.

Special Report

Interest rate volatility is very low across developed market fixed income. Investors should maximize the carry in their portfolios to outperform in a low rate vol environment.

Special Report

The global drive to build a resilient ex-China rare earth supply chain is accelerating. It has emerged as a strategic priority and is backed by both public and private sector investment in many countries. In this Special Report, we argue that rare earth adjacent plays present a more attractive opportunity for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare earth capex cycle than a pure-play strategy.

Oil price risks remain skewed to the upside over the near term as geopolitical risks continue to dominate. Nevertheless, we ultimately expect bearish fundamentals to reassert themselves over a six-to-12-month timeframe and drive oil prices lower.

We spent last week meeting investors in Switzerland. This Strategy Insight revisits the most prominent topics we discussed, including repatriation fears, SNB intervention, and Dutch pension reform.

The CNY is undervalued and highly competitive. This gives China room to let the currency appreciate while remaining an export-driven powerhouse, gradually shifting from export intensity toward stronger domestic consumption. This achieves two objectives. First, it narrows the capital account deficit and strengthens the CNY’s role as a global anchor. Second, it enhances Beijing’s geopolitical autonomy by reducing reliance on foreign final demand.

Special Report

This Special Report assesses evidence of RMB’s involvement in global carry trades, examines its structural characteristics, and identifies key indicators of a potential unwind.