Special Report

The Long-Term Determinants Of Currency Returns

05 Mar 2026

by Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist, Developed Markets ex US & Head of Research Innovation

FX often looks random because no single model dominates across regimes. We lay out our long-term framework anchored in valuation, productivity, external balances, and the fiscal-monetary mix to identify when currencies are likely to mean-revert and where the long-run risk-reward is asymmetric.

Interested in reading this report?

To access the full BCA Research report, request a complimentary copy

BCA Research | Foreign Exchange Strategy

Helping guide portfolio managers, CIOs, and traders with actionable overlay strategies and profitable trading ideas. A bonus is insights for other asset classes, from a currency perspective.