FICC

The gap between PCE and CPI inflation will narrow within the next few months, mostly driven by core PCE inflation converging toward its trimmed mean.

The Iran war remains a terms-of-trade shock rather than a classic flight to safety – for now. As oil risks skew higher, policy repricing and growth differentials should continue to favor a tactical rebound in the USD.

Drone and ballistic missile attacks were slowing, as of March 11. Air traffic in the region was also slowly recovering, as the pace of attacks declined. Warning, however: Reports from US CENTCOM and the IDF claim that Iran still has around 40% to 50% of its stockpile of missiles and launchers. Attacks are continuing, even though at a reduced tempo.

With all eyes on the Strait of Hormuz, BCA Research has created a dashboard of data for your convenience.

Special Report

Momentum behind nuclear energy is accelerating, yet financing remains the critical constraint. In this Special Report, we examine how evolving taxonomies and green bond frameworks are reshaping access to sustainable capital and assess whether they can meaningfully support the revival of nuclear energy.

The recent oil price shock reinforces our view that inflation will surprise to the upside during the next few months but fall rapidly in H2 2026.

If the 2022 roadmap is any guide, equity markets and cyclical currencies will trough only after confirming that the peak in energy prices is in the rearview mirror. In the very near term, investors should focus on P&L preservation. Reduce exposure to equities, and seek refuge in gold, and inflation-linked bonds (ILBs). Amid a very different demand side than in 2022, today’s supply shock is unlikely to generate lasting inflation, and investors should fade rate-hike odds.

Special Report

Stablecoins are evolving from a niche crypto instrument into a macro-relevant financial layer. This Special Report maps the transmission channels and consequences for the Treasury market, bank funding dynamics, and the dollar’s global footprint.

Looking through month-to-month volatility, job growth’s underlying trend is stable and consistent with a flat-to-slightly higher unemployment rate.

Special Report

Europe’s fiscal debate has resurfaced as interest rates normalize and new spending pressures emerge. Yet alarmism is misplaced. Aggregate debt levels are high but broadly stable, servicing costs remain historically low, and r–g dynamics are broadly benign. Fiscal space matters less as the ECB and EU backstop growth and spreads. Structural reforms—not wanton fiscal spending—is Europe’s real opportunity.