CoreMacro | Global

Tech has starkly underperformed other equity sectors and the tech-heavy US market has underperformed non-US markets, but global stocks are up and have comfortably outperformed bonds. This pattern of performances is likely to continue through the rest of 2026. Plus, two new tactical trades are: long coffee; and long ETH.

Special Report

This Special Report assesses evidence of RMB’s involvement in global carry trades, examines its structural characteristics, and identifies key indicators of a potential unwind.

Special Report

If humanoid robots were to become substitutable for workers, the AI age could lead to rapid growth in the size of the effective global labor force. The result could be a larger version of the “China shock,” which followed China’s entry into the global economy.

The January jobs report was unambiguously strong. Although the 172K gain in private payrolls will almost certainly be revised down, the message from the "ratios" was reassuring: The unemployment rate fell for a second straight month, the labor force participation rate increased, the share of workers who are involuntarily part-time declined, and the prime-age employment-to-population ratio rose back to its all-time high. Unlike the payroll survey, the household survey from which ratios are calculated is subject to minimal revisions.

Special Report

The yen carry trade will unwind this year. However, it will be triggered by a drop in “carry asset” prices and a spike in the JPY/USD, rather than by Japan’s improving interest rate differentials. Go long JPY against the USD.

The US residential real estate market remains soft. While the decline in mortgage rates is a positive, it is too early to bet on housing becoming the engine of growth for the US economy this year.

Almost all bull markets are built on a foundation of truth. With enough time, however, FOMO takes over, causing prices to overshoot fundamentals. This is what has happened to gold and silver, and increasingly to other metals as well.

Contrary to widespread narratives, there is little cash on the sidelines. The aggregate amount of investable funds-to-equity market cap ratio is at an all-time low in the US and very low in other developed markets.

The conventional wisdom attributes the fall in the yen and the rise in long-term JGB yields to growing fiscal concerns. This narrative, however, fails to explain why the Japanese stock market has risen by 29% in dollar terms since the start of 2025, outperforming the All Country World Index by 6%.

Over the past few months, we have been deploying new market-timing tools aimed at improving the accuracy of our calls. Today’s report highlights our ultra high-frequency Daily Oscillators, which provide daily signals on the near-term direction of the S&P 500 and long-term Treasuries.