The ‘special relationship’ between the United States and the United Kingdom describes the centuries-old political, social, cultural, and historic ties that have bound the transatlantic nations. Today though, the most important special relationship is the one that explains why inflation remains stubb...
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend, our perspective on the yen, gold an...
While Transportation Infrastructure is intuitive to grasp, its cash flow dynamics are often less understood. This educational report examines cash flow drivers across sectors, highlighting both macro and micro influences. Current opportunities are strongest in Ports and Highways & Roads over Airport...
We remain bullish both bonds and equities, but conviction is falling. We are Luddites when it comes to the AI theme, but we have followed it regardless. A bubble is a bubble, not to be shorted. Yet Europe’s weak AI returns reveal 2025’s real story: the fall of King Dollar....
The dollar’s early 2025 decline was a reflection of a global rush to hedge accumulated USD exposure, not a mass exodus from US assets. With most hedging now complete, currency moves should again follow fundamentals, setting the stage for a tactical USD rebound in the months ahead....
Survey-based data available for September show weakening US growth momentum, supporting modest defensiveness. While the government shutdown may delay official releases, soft data provide a timely view. Our US economic diffusion index, combining more than 80 indicators, points to slowing momentum. Of...
Commodity market breadth would need to improve for it to signal bullish conditions for the aggregate commodity complex. We maintain a defensive tilt within commodities, favoring precious metals over the more cyclically sensitive energy and industrial metals....
Despite concerns about fiscal sustainability, a rise in term premia, and attacks on central bank independence, monetary policy remains the primary driver of bond markets. In our Q3 Review & Outlook, we update our views and identify opportunities in government bonds, short-term interest rate futures,...
The surprise election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s ruling party new leader has delivered yet another blow to the beleaguered yen. Takaichi is widely expected to pursue the basic tenets of Abenomics – easier fiscal and monetary policy....
