Macro Investment Insights & Market Commentary

“Warshspan?” The Potential Return Of 1990s-Era Monetary Policy

In Section II, Jonathan explores whether Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed Chair signals a return to Greenspan-era, rules-based monetary policy....

Monetary Policy Economy

28 May 2026

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An Ocean Apart

In Section I, Doug revisits the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for growth in Europe and the US. In Section II, Jonathan explores whether Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed Chair signals a return to Greenspan-era, rules-based monetary policy....

Euro Area US Labor Market

28 May 2026

Webcast Replay

Unparalleled Divergences, Bessenomics, and AI Hype

Please join Chief EM/China Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan for a Webcast.

Thursday, May 28
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Arthur will discuss:

The Fed: Damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t
Bessenomics upended?
Get Out of the Dollar (G.O.D.) Thesis: paused, not reversed
Unprecedented economic and market divergences
Lessons from the 2000 tech bubble peak
EM equities: A one-horse race
Opportunities in EM fixed income and equities

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Why Robots Will NOT Kill Middle Incomes

AI excels at IQ but fails miserably at EQ. Hence, AI will obsolete any job that relies on IQ, including many graduate-level jobs. But high-EQ humans will be in high demand to pair up with AI, and many of these jobs will be middle income jobs. We discuss the implication for the economy and markets. P...

Technology AI

28 May 2026

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Will Ukraine Escalate And Iran Deescalate?

The odds of a near-term US-Iran deal have gone up slightly, but the odds of a Russian provocation that divides NATO have also gone up. ...

War/Conflict Geopolitics

27 May 2026

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Romania: A Budding Currency Crisis

In Romania, large fiscal and current account deficits, high inflation, negative real rates, an overvalued exchange rate, and deteriorating growth point to budding currency devaluation. Investors should short the Romanian currency versus the euro and underweight Romanian local bonds, equities, and so...

Frontier Markets Central Europe

27 May 2026

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Capex Killed The Cash-Flow Star

Tech, and increasingly the market, is moving from a cash-return regime to a reinvestment regime. After the GFC, investors rewarded companies that returned cash to investors. In the AI cycle, they are rewarding companies that put that cash back to work. This is not just a story of falling free cash f...

Equities Factors

26 May 2026

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From Top Quartile To Average: Fund Number Matters

In Private Markets, yesterday’s winners often see outperformance fade. Top-quartile managers often regress toward the median as fund series mature. For investors evaluating the next Real Estate or Private Equity manager: Bias toward underweighting Funds V and beyond....

Private Equity Real Estate

26 May 2026

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US-Iran: What To Make Of The Accelerated Negotiations

I spent the last week in London, speaking to a wide array of BCA Research clients. Throughout the early part of the week, well connected friends and sources in the Middle East warned me that a renewed US attack on Iran was imminent (by Friday, May 22, after the market close, bien sûr). Several clien...

Iran

25 May 2026

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The Good Still Outweighs The Bad

Against the earnings-versus-everything-else market backdrop, stellar earnings are easily outweighing elevated oil prices, rising yields and the increased probability that the Fed may hike rates before the year is out. US allocators should remain invested in equities....

Sentiment Economy

25 May 2026