Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

Using stock-level data for MSCI ACWI country indices going back to 1984 for Developed markets and 1988 for Emerging markets, we find that market concentration adds little predictive power for long term forward returns. Whatever predictive power it has disappears once we include traditional metrics like value and size. The same is true for idiosyncratic index risk. Index concentration is just not very important for determining risk and return in equity markets.

Russia poses an immediate risk to global financial markets, and then perhaps a buying opportunity. Trump is pivoting to ceasefires and trade deals, but Russia could trigger a new tariff shock first.

Special Report

Investors often ask us which industries the Chinese government is prioritizing for expansion. The assumption is that investing in sectors hand-picked authorities will produce solid investment returns. Yet, this assumption has not held over the past decade.

We will only move to a fully defensive stance if the “whites of the recession’s eyes” appear. So far, they have not. We will be increasingly looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when the next turning point in markets may come.

Special Report

Crypto adoption is set to accelerate following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which establishes a regulatory framework for digital assets. Companies across the crypto ecosystem are well-positioned to benefit from digital asset growth and price appreciation. Crypto equities are a new strategic allocation, and we recommend using pullbacks to build a long-term position using ETFs.

We apply a systematic approach to investing based on economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises to the foreign exchange market. The signals from this framework are broadly consistent with the tactical views of our FX strategists, which anticipate a pause in the USD’s decline and a partial reversal of the recent euro strength.

Although we think the economy is weaker than investors realize, it has remained resilient and we will not fight the tape forever. If clear signs of a recession do not emerge over the next six weeks, we will drop our defensive recommendations.

This week our three screeners identify: Equity plays on US banks, stocks that benefit from heightened US fiscal uncertainty, and a global Value and Technical basket of stocks.

Special Report

Investors should anticipate above average Treasury returns during the next 12 months, and curve steepeners will continue to profit.

Consensus sees one final ECB cut; we argue two are coming as deflationary forces are building in Europe. Dive in for the trade map: falling Bund yields, tighter peripheral spreads, and a euro primed for a 2026 rebound.