Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

Artificial intelligence will destabilize domestic politics and international security. States will try to adopt more creative fiscal policy, including by raising taxes on Big Tech.

European euphoria is overdone. The most exceptional asset class in Europe is Infrastructure, but granular opportunities span other asset classes by sector and country. Venture Capital is a North America and Asia-Pacific play. We downgrade Private Credit, and upgrade Global Buyouts. Time to take profits on Long-Short Equity Hedge Funds.

Thanks to the tight monetary and fiscal policies so far, inflation and growth are heading lower in Turkey. Buy 2-year local currency bonds, currency unhedged. Also, upgrade Turkey's domestic bonds from neutral to overweight and stocks from underweight to neutral within their respective EM portfolios.

U.S. copper tariffs will redirect the metal’s trade flows from the US to the rest of the world, replenishing depleted inventories abroad. With global copper demand set to soften in H2, the red metal will likely face downward price pressure outside the US. Stay long gold / short LME copper, and initiate an outright LME copper short.

Banks have had a strong run and may continue to outperform, supported by a rebound in capital market activity, improving momentum in the core banking business, and the potential for rerating driven by deregulation. While risks remain, we remain cautiously optimistic.

This insight gives life to four high-conviction views on European small caps, aero¬space & defense, banks, and telecoms by harnessing the power of BCA’s Equity Analyzer (EA).

EUR/JPY has reached stretched levels, prompting new short trade recommendations across BCA Strategies. The calls are underpinned by compelling valuation, macro, and technical signals.

Special Report

Our latest report analyzes home bias in bonds and equities across 15 countries. The verdict? Hedged international bonds outperform domestic peers, especially during high inflation. In equities, even top markets like the US have had multi-year periods of underperformance. Allocators should leave patriotism aside when running their portfolios.

Special Report

Global investors should keep an open mind regarding global trade and whether "Cold War II" is taking shape. Today's international context is different from that of the original Cold War, but economic integration has declined and could well continue to decline if the great powers do not manage their security competition better in coming years.

The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive.