Latest from BCA Research
Venezuelan crude output is unlikely to alter the global oil market outlook for this year. However, US control of Venezuelan crude is a risk to Canadian oil sands producers and Canadian oil prices. Go long US oil refiners/short Canadian oil producers.
To start 2026, we answer what we believe are the most important questions facing investors surrounding the labor market, monetary and fiscal policy, and AI stocks. Overall, we reiterate our overweight views on risk assets and highlight the risks surrounding the upcoming tariff decision.
Much like the 2000 episode, we expect this year to unfold in two stages: A “Great Rotation” from tech stocks to non-tech names in the first half of 2026 followed by a broad-based selloff in stocks in the second half on the back of a weakening US economy.
With FX volatility near cycle lows, this Insight examines where positioning has become most stretched across G10, EM FX, and precious metals – and what that implies for near-term moves and reversal risks.
At major technical crossroads, markets eitherpull back before staging a sustainable breakout, or attempt to break out only to drop considerably (i.e., a fakeout). We believe the latter dynamics are more likely to play out.
The US High Quality portfolio underperformed its benchmark through December, returning 0.14%, while its SPY benchmark returned 0.78%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was weaker than the benchmark, with USHQ underperforming by approx. 545bps.
2026 has closer parallels with 2021 than with 2000 because an ultra-accommodative Fed can prolong the stock market rally even as a tech capex boom ends. Plus, a new tactical trade is short silver versus gold.
We explain the underlying catalysts for the RMB’s seasonal appreciation, and assess the upside potential for the currency in 2026.
There will be little market and macro implications from the US intervention in Venezuela. Fade away any near-term moves in global oil markets. However, Colombian and Peruvian assets will benefit from lower political risk premiums. We are upgrading Colombian equities and fixed income to overweight versus EM.