Technical

MacroQuant recommends a modest overweight position in equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has downgraded oil to neutral, and is bullish on copper and gold.

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has upgraded oil and copper to overweight, and is bullish on gold.

Over the past few months, we have been deploying new market-timing tools aimed at improving the accuracy of our calls. Today’s report highlights our ultra high-frequency Daily Oscillators, which provide daily signals on the near-term direction of the S&P 500 and long-term Treasuries.

With FX volatility near cycle lows, this Insight examines where positioning has become most stretched across G10, EM FX, and precious metals – and what that implies for near-term moves and reversal risks.

MacroQuant has downgraded equities to underweight, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is still bullish on gold.

Indian stocks have further downside in absolute terms as profits disappoint. Their underperformance versus the EM equity benchmark, however, is late, which warrants a shift from underweight to neutral allocation.

The dollar rebound has paused, but not yet peaked. With near-term momentum still intact, we see room for further upside before structural headwinds reassert, favoring selling into strength.

MacroQuant is tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold and copper.

Speculative froth has built up across all precious metals, yet gold’s structural tailwinds will allow it to weather corrections better than its peers.

MacroQuant sees downside risks to stocks over a long-term horizon but is not yet saying that we are at imminent risk of an equity bear market.