Latest from BCA Research
From steepening to flattening. As the BoJ continues to tighten in 2026, we show why curve flatteners are finally the right trade.
We have been surprised that consumption has held up well despite anemic payrolls growth. This brief considers ways that consumption might continue to beat our base-case expectations.
The US removal of Venezuela's Maduro does not presage an invasion of Greenland. But it does justify a lingering risk of conflict with Iran.
In trying to dispel client concerns that the US would get involved in another “forever war” akin to Iraq, we posited in a recent missive that President Trump’s designs on Venezuela were similar to the 1983 invasion of Grenada. A way to flex American muscle while, at the same time, reducing US global commitments.
MacroQuant has downgraded equities to underweight, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is still bullish on gold.
Late December is time for relaxation and reflection. We sincerely hope that all our clients and friends have had the time to defragment their brains over the past two weeks. The geomacro Vol is unlikely to let up in 2026. We will all need stamina and clarity for what lies ahead.
For investors, there are two ways to think of President Trump’s bellicose rhetoric and military positioning vis-à-vis Venezuela
The forces that have recently propelled aluminum prices will remain supportive over the near term. However, beyond the coming months, aluminum prices will retreat as bearish cyclical pressures overwhelm over the course of 2026.