Latest from BCA Research

2026 is shaping up to be a fertile backdrop for new Private Equity commitments, and our views are turning increasingly constructive. However, three risks remain on our radar: The overhang, Middle East capital, and Evergreen funds.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug underscores that the US labor market remains weak, crimping the outlook for disposable income growth. It is too soon to decisively bet against the bull market, but downside risks remain quite elevated. In Section II, Jonathan updates the BCA Artificial Intelligence Productivity Checklist and concludes that the evidence of an AI-driven productivity boom is not convincing.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan updates the BCA Artificial Intelligence Productivity Checklist and concludes that the evidence of an AI-driven productivity boom is not convincing.

Special Report

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026.

This week, our screeners explore German stocks to underweight or short, sectors that would benefit the most from a reversal of the K-Shaped economy, as well as gold miners equities.

Special Report

The dollar enters 2026 on the edge of a structural decline. Our FX Key Views report maps the valuation, flow, and policy pressures that could finally trigger a sustained downtrend – and where the trade opportunities lie.

Special Report

Every year, the Global Asset Allocation team compiles a list of our favorite books, essays, and articles from our strategists ahead of the holiday season. This year, we focus on writings by practitioners in the world of finance, business, and beyond. While diverse in their backgrounds, one theme stands out: Adaptation.

As in the US, Europe now offers compelling opportunities, albeit in different sectors and countries. Multifamily remains resilient amid structurally tight supply, while Industrial continues to cool. The most attractive opportunities are emerging in Office and Retail, where fundamentals are beginning to turn.

Rumors are swirling in Washington, D.C. that the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) will rule on President Trump’s tariff policies either this week (according to Barron’s) or in early January (according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent). A ruling against the tariffs would be a major strike against President Trump and, at the very least, upend markets in the short term.

Lots of data out today, most of which point to a global economy that is cooling but not (yet) freezing.