Latest from BCA Research

In this screener report, we explore opportunities in nuclear theme, geopolitical hedge, and winners from AI productivity boom.

In this chartpack, we present the logic behind our sanguine view and why we think that oil has peaked. We also elucidate our three main scenarios from here on out.

The main reason the oil shock has not caused stocks to crash is that investors do not expect the shock to last very long.

Volatility is high, but the path for yields is clearer than it looks. Across three oil scenarios, we show how policy responses shape fixed income markets and why the balance of risks still points to lower yields.

When the ceasefire between Iran and the US was announced on April 8, several clients told us that their geopolitical consultants were pitching a bearish narrative. The US had set up the two-week ceasefire to surge more material and troops to the region, so as to set up the next phase of the conflict. One such advisory firm also pointed out that it was unlikely that the US would hold back on further conflict since it had “already amassed ground troops to the region.”

Special Report

The long-run rise in S&P 500 margins reflects more than a shift toward higher-margin sectors. Most of the increase has come from higher profitability within sectors, supported by favorable mix of macro forces. Looking ahead, many of those tailwinds are likely to fade, with AI-driven productivity gains as a potential offsetting upside driver of margins.

The labor market showed signs of reviving in the first three months of this year, but it is yet to be determined how consumers will react to the energy supply shock. We reiterate our benchmark asset allocation recommendations, but are skeptical that S&P 500 earnings growth will meet outsized expectations over the rest of 2026.

Special Report

Uranium’s bull market remains intact, supported by structural supply deficits, rising nuclear demand, and tightening fuel-cycle constraints. The Iran war reinforces energy security concerns while disrupting key inputs like sulfur, exacerbating supply risks. With contracting strengthening and policy support accelerating, uranium is re-emerging as a strategic commodity with durable upside.

President Trump has announced that the US would impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, in effect exacerbating the partial blockade that has already been in place due to Iran’s threats against shipping in the Persian Gulf. The threat comes after the direct negotiations between Iran and the US in Islamabad failed to make a breakthrough. Oil is up on the news and stock futures are down. How should investors read the situation?

In this report, we deviate from our base case and instead assume that there is an immediate improvement in Hormuz traffic. This exercise allows us to explore how the global oil supply shortfall could eventually be offset if the right conditions are in place.