FICC

The Fed’s 2025 interest rate projections reveal two camps within the committee. One group looking for no rate cuts this year and another looking for 50-bps of easing. We think the second group’s forecast will turn out to be more accurate.

In this Insight, we look at the best trade idea from the recent rate cut by the Riksbank.

In this note, we reaffirm our underweight position in JGBs and long yen positions given the BoJ’s meeting overnight.

In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies.

Investors should hold gold, build up some cash, tactically overweight US equities relative to global, and prepare for at least minor oil supply shocks – possibly major shocks – as the Israel-Iran war escalates.

While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.

Investors often rely on past relationships to predict future outcomes. This strategy is at risk now that several commodity correlations have broken down. We explore the causes and sustainability of the new commodity relationships.

Special Report

France’s political turmoil is far from over, and fiscal fears are growing. This is not a bond-friendly environment. In contrast, it is a good time to upgrade French equities. As the 2027 presidential race is about to begin in earnest, we make an early call on its outcome.

For now, measures of labor market utilization (like the unemployment rate) are only gradually weakening. But we know from history that these trends have a habit of quickly accelerating in advance of recession.

The ECB is changing its tone, but don’t call it a pivot. Slower cuts, sticky disinflation, and a soft growth patch shift the opportunity set. We break down the tactical bond trades and why EUR/USD dips are still for buying.