CoreMacro
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
The pound will reach $1.60 if ‘America’s Brexit’ cancels out ‘Britain’s Brexit’. Meanwhile, the flight from the fiat dollar to non-fiat bitcoin will enable the preeminent cryptocurrency to reach $200,000+.
The EM EPS recovery has been narrow, solely driven by TMT stocks in China, Korea, and Taiwan. EM corporate profits are set to contract in the next six to nine months. Unlike in the past, US dollar weakness will be deflationary, not reflationary, for EM share prices.
Following a rapid-fire review of issues related to household balance sheets, durable goods demand, the impact of tariffs, DOGE’s capacity to move the budget needle and the labor market’s ongoing cooling, we reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.
The perfectly synchronised moves in US, Japanese, German, and UK 30-year bond yields through the past two months are odd… and irrational. These irrational moves present compelling investment opportunities.
The London Sino-US trade talks offered hope of de-escalation, but Chinese equities remain under pressure from deflationary headwinds and lack a clear macro catalyst to trend higher.
