GeoMacro | Secular Themes
Long-term thematic shifts in geopolitical forces that will shape the years or even decades ahead. Typically published 3 times a month.
We have long argued, on a case-by-case basis, that countries willing to play the superpowers against each other win in a multipolar world. The logic is intuitive, and in this report, we measure it systematically.
In this month’s Beta Report, we assess what that structural tension means for investors under two distinct scenarios. In our base case – a multipolar world order – Australia's position turns out to be more advantageous than it appears. The great power capital expenditure race generates demand for precisely what Australia produces. In the tail risk – a hard bipolar rupture – the calculus inverts, and the same commodity dependencies that long appeared as structural strengths begin to look like structural liabilities.
Peru is well established to elect a pro-market government in the June 7 run-off, with institutional constraints limiting left-tail policy risks. We will go long Peruvian assets when Hormuz volatility subsides.
The debate over “what replaces the dollar” is misguided. The real shift is toward a multi-anchor system where reserve functions fragment. That changes everything from term premia to cross-asset correlations. The implication: portfolios built for the old regime are already behind the curve.
Domestic politics suggest that President Trump needs to retreat from the war in Iran, but strategic factors suggest not. Stay defensive for now.
Our "miniature stagflation" episode is coming together on the back of the Iran shock, China slowdown, and American political division.
The market narrative around the Gulf conflict rests on three flawed myths: the UAE is not “finished,” Iran cannot close Hormuz indefinitely, and the war is not fundamentally about China.
China's slowdown coincides with at least a minor global oil shock – a combination we have long feared.
Trump is saving face with new tariffs but will avoid any major new tariff shock until 2027. For now, Iran risk will overshadow tariff volatility.