FICC

The SNB remains on hold, but the bar for further easing is falling quickly – even as Switzerland secures a breakthrough trade deal with the US. With CHF now pressing against a policy ceiling, the franc looks increasingly attractive as a funding currency.

Special Report

Risk assets in EM/China and cyclical commodities will sell off in H1 2026. A shift toward aggressive policy stimulus in China and a clear improvement in global manufacturing are needed to produce durable rallies in EM/China risk assets and the prices of energy and industrial metals.

The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates.

Special Report

We present our five key views for global fixed income markets in 2026. A year that will see the global easing cycle come to an end.

September’s weak consumer spending data challenge the K-shaped recovery narrative and suggest that spending will slow to match already-weak employment growth.

Bitcoin’s recent volatility masks a deeper story – the widest disconnect from traditional macro drivers since 2022. With sentiment now deeply negative and institutional demand still building, the conditions for a realignment with fundamentals are falling into place.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2025.

Special Report

Commodity market analysis usually focuses heavily on supply-demand balances. Yet in this framework piece, we argue that reported balances are an overrated gauge of underlying commodity price trends.

Japanese financial assets will finally have unfettered access to outsized returns. This performance will come in fits and starts, but we are comfortable laying our cards down on buying the yen, and Japanese industrial stocks.

Special Report

Our key US fixed income views for 2026.