CoreMacro

We introduce a systematic approach to investing based on the combination of three macroeconomic variables: economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises.

Expectations of US import tariffs drove the latest upleg in the prices of precious and industrial metals. However, there are no significant economic or political incentives for the US to impose import tariffs on these metals. Therefore, investors should fade the recent spike in gold, silver, platinum and copper prices. We are initiating a short position on silver as a tactical trade.

Special Report

The rise of the far-right is challenging mainstream German politics. The CDU/CSU and SPD will govern Germany again after the election. A ceasefire in Ukraine will offer some relief, but Trump’s policies will keep tensions high.

Special Report

Thanks to their attractive valuations, European equities are piquing the interest of global investors. Is there more to the appeal of European stocks or do they remain a mere value trap?

Special Report

Thanks to their attractive valuations, European equities are piquing the interest of global investors. Is there more to the appeal of European stocks or do they remain a mere value trap?

If the 130-day complexity of the Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond collapsed to 1.30, it would signal the risk of a -20 percent market slump. This indicator, at 1.37, is not yet at critical, but we recommend that you keep a close eye on it on our website. Plus: an update on our recent trades.

In his latest Thoughts Of The Day, Peter Berezin discusses the different moving parts of the global economy today and the potential impact of Trump's policies.

The 3-3-3 plan pitched by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will need several improbabilities to break its way if it is to meet its goals. We think it is much more likely that the plan will disappoint. Defensive asset allocations will outperform once it becomes clear that 3-3-3 will fall short, but we are currently neutral across the board because the disappointment may be months away.

Europe is about to become President Trump’s next target. The good news: a US/EU trade war will be short as common ground to achieve a deal exists. The bad news: European assets remain at the mercy of heightened uncertainty. How should investors position themselves in this tricky context?