CoreMacro
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
There will be little market and macro implications from the US intervention in Venezuela. Fade away any near-term moves in global oil markets. However, Colombian and Peruvian assets will benefit from lower political risk premiums. We are upgrading Colombian equities and fixed income to overweight versus EM.
We have been surprised that consumption has held up well despite anemic payrolls growth. This brief considers ways that consumption might continue to beat our base-case expectations.
MacroQuant has downgraded equities to underweight, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is still bullish on gold.
Lots of data out today, most of which point to a global economy that is cooling but not (yet) freezing.
Following this weekend's election, we reiterate an overweight stance across Chilean risk assets relative to EM benchmarks and advise buying local currency government bonds (currency unhedged).
This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust. Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day). And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.
