This report addresses five frequently asked questions from our Greater China clients over the past few months.
Oil shocks hit economies with a lag. China will feel the delayed pain of surging oil prices, pushing Beijing toward infrastructure spending as its main tool to prop up growth.
China’s K-shaped economy is widening, with resilient exports and subdued domestic consumption. Over the next 6–12 months, we see a higher probability that global capex momentum persists than China delivers meaningful consumer-focused stimulus.
Global trade has held up despite US non-AI import volumes contracting by 25% over the past 12 months. The strength in global trade has concentrated in two areas: (1) imports of AI-related hardware and (2) developing countries’ imports, especially from China. Will these continue?
Chinese onshore equities are riding the global “scarcity trade,” powered by tight semi supply and surging alternative-energy demand. How should investors position in this environment?
Outside Asian semiconductor producers, EM corporate earnings and profitability have seen little improvement. Despite the ceasefire in the Middle East, the medium-term outlook for EM stocks is still unattractive.
The ceasefire announced on Tuesday may signal peak intensity in the Middle East crisis, but sustained energy price pressures will continue to challenge Chinese corporate profitability.
Chinese stock prices are converging with economic growth after a 2025 rally. While the country can endure a short-term oil price shock, it remains susceptible to extended supply disruptions and a global slowdown.
This report unpacks this year’s uneventful NPC, reading the tea leaves of key messages and offering insights on the impact of rising oil prices on China.