Fourth quarter US GDP growth clocked in at 1.4%, well below consensus expectations of 2.8%. We are not too troubled by the miss. The government shutdown weighed on the economy, with government spending subtracting 0.9 percentage points from growth. Real private final domestic demand – a clean measur...
The “Chuck Norris Premium” is now fully in the market. Since the miraculously successful nabbing of President Nicolas Maduro on January 3, the odds of subsequent use of military against Iran increased. ...
The neutral rate in the US is being propped up by a variety of forces that are at risk of reversing. These include the AI capex boom, large budget deficits, and the extraordinarily high level of household wealth. As such, interest rates are likely to surprise to the downside over the next few years....
Oil price risks remain skewed to the upside over the near term as geopolitical risks continue to dominate.Nevertheless, we ultimately expect bearish fundamentals to reassert themselves over a six-to-12-month timeframe and drive oil prices lower....
Tech has starkly underperformed other equity sectors and the tech-heavy US market has underperformed non-US markets, but global stocks are up and have comfortably outperformed bonds. This pattern of performances is likely to continue through the rest of 2026. Plus, two new tactical trades are: long ...
Go long LATAM ex. Brazil banks / short global bank stocks. Brazilian bank equities will underperform due to poor and worsening macro fundamentals. ...
The recent Bitcoin selloff is lacking a clear macro driver. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Artem Sakhbiev, from our FX strategy team. Bitcoin is down roughly 45% since its October peak, erasing all gains since the 2024 US presidential election. While large drawdowns are common in crypto, the ...
January US CPI cooled slightly, with leading indicators pointing to further disinflation later this year. Headline inflation fell to 2.4% y/y in January from 2.7%. Similarly, core also cooled to 2.5% from 2.6%, in line with estimates. Core goods inflation declined from 1.4% y/y to 1.1%, while core s...
