Macro Investment Insights & Market Commentary

The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more likely the Eurozone will experience an economic recession, as higher energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and weaker global demand slowly grind the European economy to a halt. The relief rally is running out of time. Investors should add e...

Iran Equities

27 Apr 2026

Report

Earnings Are Great. What Could Go Wrong?

The S&P 500 finished last week at an all-time high as optimism over earnings has pushed the Iran conflict out of the spotlight. Despite uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, we do not think investors have enough evidence to justify underweighting equities and other risk assets....

US Equities

27 Apr 2026

Report

The “Scarcity Trade” And Chinese Stocks

Chinese onshore equities are riding the global “scarcity trade,” powered by tight semi supply and surging alternative-energy demand. How should investors position in this environment?...

China Equities

27 Apr 2026

Report

On Hormuz’s LNG Disruption

The Iran war has damaged LNG production capacity and halted tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. We assess the conflict's impact on LNG markets over cyclical and structural horizons....

Iran Natural Gas

24 Apr 2026

Webcast Replay

Strait Talk

Topics discussed:

Update on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz: shipping, attacks, and the state of talks
How is the global energy market absorbing the shock?
How will central banks respond to the trade-off between growth and inflation?
Should investors fade the USD rebound?
How is the energy crisis rippling across other commodity markets?

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Report

Scarcity: The Ultimate Source Of Profits

Most of the increase in S&P 500 earnings estimates this year has stemmed from shortages. The oil shortage, which has pushed up estimates for energy companies, will fade once the military conflict is resolved. However, the shortage of semiconductors and other AI paraphernalia could persist for a ...

Corporate Profits AI

23 Apr 2026

Webcast Replay

Disconnect Between Markets And Fundamentals?

Please join Chief EM/China Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan, for a Webcast on Thursday, April 23 at 2:00 PM EDT | 7:00 PM BST | 8:00 PM CEST.

Arthur will discuss:

EM equities: A profitless rally
EM structural profitability: Little improvement
China: Making sense of the economy and stock market
EM Local Bonds: Buy Back On Dips
EM sovereign credit: As good as it gets
EM equity and fixed income opportunities

Watch Now

Report

Oil Shocks: The Myth, And The Reality

In the US, the oil shock’s impact is more inflationary than recessionary but in the other economies, like the UK, the impact is both inflationary and recessionary. This creates relative value opportunities for bond investors. Plus, we reiterate short AUD/JPY as a trade....

Oil Inflation

23 Apr 2026

Report

With Central Banks On Hold, Carry Takes Over

With central banks largely on hold, the return of a lower volatility environment is bringing carry trades back into focus. We outline the most attractive carry opportunities across global fixed income markets....

Monetary Policy Corporate Bonds

23 Apr 2026

Report

Europe Infrastructure: Short Renewables, Long Power Storage And Data Centers

Europe has been too ambitious with Renewables. Oversupply, volatility, and rising contract risk are compressing revenues and returns. The space is now crowded yet markets have not fully repriced the risk. New opportunities are emerging: Power Storage and Data Centers have upside....

Europe Renewable Energy

23 Apr 2026