Brazil’s elections have turned into a game of roulette for investors. Bulls and bears were each wrong-footed between the first and second rounds of elections. We are downgrading Brazilian equities, local bonds, and sovereign credit to underweight within their respective EM portfolios....
Since ChatGPT’s launch in late 2022, multiple waves of AI innovation have driven markets and dominated the conversation across the investment community. Drawing on an extensive set of questions from BCA clients and strategists, our new report tackles the uncertainties that remain: What beyond custom...
In this screener report, we explore opportunities in high-quality Tech, European integration winners, and selective US cyclicals in Industrials and Materials....
Markets expect the BoC to hike by 100 bps over the next year; we do not. Housing and labor weakness argue for owning Canadian bonds now, while Carney’s reforms and a resource capex wave make the CAD and resource stocks multi-year winners....
Europe has 99 problems, but the paucity of bearish views about the Old Continent is not one of them! And yet, somewhat shockingly, European assets have outperformed US assets over the past two years. Sure, markets make mistakes. But the macro graveyards are littered with investors who thought they w...
Ags have tumbled from overbought highs, and further near-term weakness is likely. But a “super” El Niño and an ongoing energy shock are setting the stage for the next rally....
Credit spreads have widened as bond risks intensified, pressuring weak-balance-sheet companies. But the stress is narrow and valuations have already compressed, so equity risks look manageable. Rather than de-risk, we would lean into quality: large over small caps, quality capex, and defensible Tech...
We highlight several potential inflections in well-established structural factors, pointing out ways that markets might respond differently this time to economic data and policy actions....
EM local bonds face near-term turbulence from rising inflation, global risk aversion, and currency weakness. Use the sell-off to build exposure: medium- and longer-term fundamentals remain favorable....
This series brings together five reports on corporate profitability across the US, Europe, Japan, China, and EM. The findings reveal a structurally desynchronized nature between regional corporate profitability. This is critical to alpha generation....
