The US economy has never entered a demand-driven recession without labour demand running below labour supply and without the job vacancy rate running below the unemployment rate. Right now though, US labour demand is still running 1.…
In a trendless yet volatile year for oil, Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran this weekend is a reminder the outlook is fraught with geopolitical risks. Risks are usually expressed as a geopolitical price premium, but this…
Industrial metals returned a whopping 6% over the past week. Bullish investor sentiment is likely driving these gains. The soft-landing narrative has been gaining traction in recent days with markets pricing in increased odds…
Industrial metals were one of the worst performing asset classes last month. Have prices declined enough to make them an attractive investment? The outlook for industrial commodity prices is bearish over a 12-month horizon…
Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?
Looking at economic activity, global monetary policy seems restrictive, however, the behavior of financial markets tells a different story. What gives?
The annual Prospective Plantings report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) last week was slightly bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans, and slightly bearish for wheat. It forecasts a 5% drop in corn acreage, a…
Global ag markets will become more volatile as anthropogenically induced climate change continues to degrade farmland. This will make price signals emanating from these markets less efficient in terms of processing supply-demand…
The rally in cocoa prices has intensified over the past two months. Prices are up 47.7% so far in 2024 on top of a 61.3% increase last year. There are fundamental reasons for the price surge. Drier weather due to the El Nino…
Prices of agricultural commodities have come under intensified downward pressure this year. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices have fallen by 8.6%, 8.3%, and 4.9% respectively so far this year. Multiple factors are behind the…