Latest from BCA Research

The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December.

Many key equity indexes have failed to break above major resistance levels, while risky segments have begun to crack. Altogether, this suggests that a major peak in risk assets has probably been made. Short the MSCI EM stock index with a stop loss at 1470.

Special Report

Germany’s economy is regaining momentum after nearly two years of recession. Despite the ongoing cyclical rebound and fiscal stimulus, political gridlock and deep-seated structural challenges threaten to limit the country’s long-term growth potential. Investors should be underweight German Bunds and favor Eurozone equities over German equities.

This report revisits China’s property market through both cyclical and structural lenses, assesses the likely policy responses, and evaluates their investment implications.

Partisan redrawing of congressional districts will not prevent Democrats from retaking the House in the 2026 midterms. Neither will the Supreme Court's look at the Voting Rights Act.

Indian stocks have further downside in absolute terms as profits disappoint. Their underperformance versus the EM equity benchmark, however, is late, which warrants a shift from underweight to neutral allocation.

This week, our screeners explore opportunities in the Swedish stock market, Canadian gold-exposed and domestic-focused sectors, and ex-tech GenAI names.

Tariffs are fading in importance as companies successfully mitigate cost pressures and preserve profitability. The recent wave of high-profile layoffs is more concerning, but there does not appear to be a systemic reason behind the announcements. However, emerging labor market softness could pose a major risk for equities. We remain vigilant.

Disparities between households and between companies’ earnings and equity performance are widening, but the overall status quo remains in place. We reiterate our neutral asset class recommendations while watching for early signs of whether activity might break out or break down.

Special Report

This Special Report outlines the Fed’s balance sheet strategy and the rationale behind it. We also provide updated projections for the major asset and liability line items on the Fed’s balance sheet.