FICC
One macro framework for rates, FX, credit, and commodities, helping investors connect cross-market signals and position with clarity and conviction.
Record diesel prices and mounting political pressure make some form of US export restriction likely. But it wouldn't be a clean solution. We reveal why relief would be fleeting, who would pay the price, and how to trade it.
Central banks have begun a mild tightening cycle as elevated energy prices raise concerns about second-round inflation effects. We use BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to test whether hawkish market pricing is justified and identify tactical opportunities across global bond and currency markets.
Recent oil market developments expose the limits of the adjustment mechanisms that have cushioned the global market since the Hormuz closure began. Fortunately, Hormuz dark transits have become the dominant shock absorber in recent months, and rising flows should help mitigate the latest supply disruption going forward.
The Fed is unanimous in expecting a mild tightening cycle of no more than 75 bps, but that outcome is contingent on a rapid drop in core inflation in 2027.
August’s 0.3% increase in core CPI breaks inflation’s 3-month downtrend and is likely hot enough for the Fed to hike rates when it meets next week.
The ECB is winning, and almost nobody's pricing it in. A flatter Phillips curve, a shrinking term premium, a euro built to shrug off France, credibility is the trade.
Thursday's sharp pullback in the COMEX copper price from an all-time high underscores a key risk to the red metal's resilience. An eventual resolution of US copper tariff uncertainty would likely trigger a price relapse. That drawdown, however, would offer an attractive opportunity to increase structural exposure to the metal.
Foreign exchange markets are shaped by a wide range of macro influences. The sheer breadth of relevant information makes systematically assessing where a currency stands at any point in time a challenging analytical task. We introduce an FX scorecard that condenses the full range of data into nine thematic scores, providing a clear visual snapshot of a currency's position and how it's evolving.
After two weeks on the road talking to investors across ANZ and India, this report addresses the questions that came up most: from investment grade issuance concerns to the selloff at the long end, and what's really driving JGBs, the yen, and the outlook for Australian and New Zealand rates.