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Webcast Replay
US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 1
Noah and Jason discussed:
- The foundations of our constructive outlook and 7700 year-end S&P 500 target
- The capex outlook and its implications
- Do valuations represent a meaningful constraint?
- Tensions and opportunities between market pricing and the state of the cycle
- What a US recession could mean for equities
- Middle East tensions: potential paths to resolution and market implications
- Sector positioning for 2026
Insight
Our GeoMacro strategists argue that prevailing market narratives around the Gulf conflict rest on three flawed assumptions. First, that the UAE’s role as a financial hub is at risk; second, that Iran can sustain a closure of the Strait of Hormuz; and third, that the conflict is primarily about press...
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Insight
European sentiment plunged in March, reflecting vulnerability to higher energy prices. The ZEW expectations index fell sharply to -8.5 from 39.4 at the Euro Area level and to -0.5 from 58.3 in Germany. German current conditions were better than estimates but remain deeply pessimistic at -62.9. The d...
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Insight
Our US Equity strategists dove into macro’s explanatory power in driving sector returns and fundamentals. Using principal component analysis, they show that growth, inflation, and rate risk together account for nearly three-quarters of sector return variation. Macro risks also influence f...
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Insight
Cross-asset correlations remain the clearest signal of how investors are pricing the energy shock. Risk assets rebounded late Monday after President Trump described the Iran war as “very complete, pretty much.” However, the outcome depends on Iran’s response, leadership cohesion, and willingness to ...
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Insight
Our Global Investment strategists argue that AI threatens the traditional profit engines of large technology firms despite boosting productivity. Tech companies have historically relied on economies of scale, network effects, and proprietary technologies, but AI may erode these advantages. Although ...
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Insight
US assets have underperformed year-to-date, but BCA views differ on the tactical versus 12-month outlook. Since the start of the year, US markets have lagged the rest of the world, largely driven by the sell-off in software and AI-related stocks. The next phase for US versus the rest of the world wa...
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Insight
The recent Bitcoin selloff is lacking a clear macro driver. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Artem Sakhbiev, from our FX strategy team. Bitcoin is down roughly 45% since its October peak, erasing all gains since the 2024 US presidential election. While large drawdowns are common in crypto, the ...
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Insight
January US CPI cooled slightly, with leading indicators pointing to further disinflation later this year. Headline inflation fell to 2.4% y/y in January from 2.7%. Similarly, core also cooled to 2.5% from 2.6%, in line with estimates. Core goods inflation declined from 1.4% y/y to 1.1%, while core s...
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Insight
Our US equity strategists expect another year of gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, with returns capped by revenue growth as the bull market matures. The US economy is slowing but not contracting, pointing to positive but more modest equity returns. Equity performance should be increasingly driven b...
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