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Economy

Talking Down The 10-Year

Some thoughts on this morning's employment data and Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent attempts to talk down the 10-year Treasury yield.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US Productivity Growth Remains Solid
Preliminary nonfarm labor productivity for Q4 came in line with estimates, decreasing to 1.2% annualized growth from an upwardly-revised 2.3%. Unit labor costs growth was lower than expected, but still jumped to 3.0% from a downwardly revised 0.5% in…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Will Secretary Bessent Bring Yields Down?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented that one of the Trump administration’s priority was lowering 10-year bond yields. Bessent’s 3/3/3 plan, boosting growth to 3% from deregulation, increasing US oil production by 3 mmb/d, and slashing the budget…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
BoE Cuts, But Sends Mixed Message
The Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.5%, with two members of the MPC voting to cut 50 bps instead. The BoE acknowledged “substantial progress on disinflation”, driven by a tight policy stance and stabilized inflation expectations. The dovish…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Expect More Rate Cuts From The BoE

Following today’s Bank of England’s policy meeting, at which the policy rate was cut by 25 bps, we discuss our outlook for monetary policy in the UK. We expect the gradual easing to continue and discuss the investment implications for UK gilts and sterling.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper, Chester Ntonifor
China: Caixin PMIs Point To Continued Low Growth
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Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ISM Services PMI Reassures Markets On Inflation
The January ISM Services missed estimates, decreasing to 52.8 from 54.0 in December. The move was driven by activity components, while employment and suppliers’ delivery times increased. Additionally, the prices paid measure decreased, reversing the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tariffs Aren’t The Real Threat For The Bond Market

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Understanding Bessenomics And Its Market Implications

This is a follow-up report on Bessenomics – the policy mix that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to pursue. The direction of US and global financial markets depends on the amount of fiscal tightening required to bring down US interest rates. Can the Trump administration cut fiscal spending just enough to bring down US bond yields but not cause a recession?

BCA Special Reports, Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Gold: Bet On Momentum
While the US dollar has outperformed every single DM currency in the past few months, the only monetary asset it did not outperform is gold. The greenback is up between 5-10% against DM currencies since September of last year, but down by more than 8% vs.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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