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For now, measures of labor market utilization (like the unemployment rate) are only gradually weakening. But we know from history that these trends have a habit of quickly accelerating in advance of recession.
The ECB is changing its tone, but don’t call it a pivot. Slower cuts, sticky disinflation, and a soft growth patch shift the opportunity set. We break down the tactical bond trades and why EUR/USD dips are still for buying.
The Bank of Canada may be on hold for now, but deflationary risks are rising fast. Find out why rate cuts may come sooner than markets expect.
Global currency markets have entered a new era. This implies that the framework for analyzing exchange rates must also change. We introduce a new framework for analyzing EM currencies and classify them into resilient and vulnerable categories. Finally, we are adding more EM domestic bonds to our portfolio and making many changes to our currency trades.
This Insight looks at the implications of the RBNZ’s rate cut on New Zealand assets.
Are bond yields overextended? We introduce a new global technical indicator that helps spot mean-reversion opportunities and shows which markets are nearing exhaustion.
Oil, copper, and gold futures curves have recently experienced abnormal shifts and twists. Brent is no longer fully backwardated, copper curves on the LME and CME have diverged, and gold is in a steep contango. We examine the drivers and implications of these shifts for prices and curve structure across the three commodities.
