FICC

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.

US restrictions on Russian crude exports could disrupt global oil supplies and trade flows over the near term. However, they are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on crude prices over a cyclical timeframe. Stay short Brent.

Special Report

US-China decoupling and rare-earth supply disruptions created a unique opportunity for non-Chinese miners and refiners to scale production and achieve profitability. The build-out will be lengthy, costly, and fraught with challenges, but government support materially improves the odds. Rare-earth production outside China is a nascent investment theme; we are structurally bullish and recommend building a position by buying on dips by investing in a diversified basket of miners, presented in the report.

US inflation data continue to show no signs of price pressures beyond a near-term tariff effect.

Beijing’s quiet pivot toward RMB strength and a deep valuation discount set the stage for a multi-year appreciation. Our latest FX Insight explores why we see the CNY rising to 6.5–6.8 versus the USD over the next year.

The Fed is poised to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, but a follow-up rate cut in December will depend on how the divergence between strong consumer spending and weak employment growth is resolved.

Same policy rate, very different expectations. We break down why policy convergence between the Fed and BoE is THE fixed income trade for year-end.

Speculative froth has built up across all precious metals, yet gold’s structural tailwinds will allow it to weather corrections better than its peers.

Silver’s short squeeze and stretched technicals warn of a potential tactical pullback.