FICC | Commodities

Special Report

Risk assets in EM/China and cyclical commodities will sell off in H1 2026. A shift toward aggressive policy stimulus in China and a clear improvement in global manufacturing are needed to produce durable rallies in EM/China risk assets and the prices of energy and industrial metals.

Special Report

Commodity market analysis usually focuses heavily on supply-demand balances. Yet in this framework piece, we argue that reported balances are an overrated gauge of underlying commodity price trends.

Special Report

US intervention will likely force out Maduro from Venezuela and reopen the economy. This could increase Venezuelan crude production in the long run, a modestly bearish outcome for oil markets over cyclical and structural horizons.

Should investors chase the copper rally or use the latest bout of strength as an opportunity to sell? We warn that weakening Chinese demand and shrinking global manufacturing will weigh on the metal’s price over a cyclical timeframe.

US restrictions on Russian crude exports could disrupt global oil supplies and trade flows over the near term. However, they are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on crude prices over a cyclical timeframe. Stay short Brent.

Special Report

US-China decoupling and rare-earth supply disruptions created a unique opportunity for non-Chinese miners and refiners to scale production and achieve profitability. The build-out will be lengthy, costly, and fraught with challenges, but government support materially improves the odds. Rare-earth production outside China is a nascent investment theme; we are structurally bullish and recommend building a position by buying on dips by investing in a diversified basket of miners, presented in the report.

Silver’s short squeeze and stretched technicals warn of a potential tactical pullback.

Commodity market breadth would need to improve for it to signal bullish conditions for the aggregate commodity complex. We maintain a defensive tilt within commodities, favoring precious metals over the more cyclically sensitive energy and industrial metals.

We remain cyclically short Brent but are tightening the stop loss to $73/bbl to guard against a geopolitics-driven upside break.

Silver, platinum, and palladium may ride the same cyclical tailwinds as gold in the coming months. However, four key risks threaten their relative performance versus the yellow metal.