Earnings growth should continue to support equity performance this year. However, after blockbuster gains, some profit-taking is likely. We recommend booking profits and increasing exposure to Defensives....
We upgrade European small caps to maximum overweight and double down on our existing recommendation to go long European small caps relative to US ones....
The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio underperformed its benchmark through June, returning 1.2%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 5.1%. On a trailing three-month basis, performance was notably weak vs. benchmark, with USHQ underperforming by approx. 600bps....
Alligator Bite #1: As US net portfolio inflows decline (the alligator's upper jaw closes), its current account deficit must narrow (the lower jaw will also shut). Alligator Bite #2: As the US current account deficit shrinks (the lower jaw closes), current account surpluses in the rest of the world w...
Private Infrastructure is superior to Public in both operational efficiency and inflation protection. However, current valuation spreads favor incremental Public deployment. Investors should consider a balanced approach between the two....
Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to stumble. Investors should book some profits in anticipation of tariff ...
Downward pressure on the pound will rise in the coming months. Inflation will go up, so will bond yields. It’s time to book profits on Egyptian domestic bonds....
This report analyzes China’s persistent deflation, which is rooted in supply-side forces. Consumption support will be slow and incremental, keeping deflationary pressures elevated for the next 6–12 months....
