The ECB is about to make its first policy mistake in the current cycle by being complacent about the downside risks to inflation. The confluence of base effects, a stronger euro, food and energy deflation, and rapid services disinflation will push headline inflation closer to 1% in the first half of...
The US High Quality portfolio outperformed its benchmark through January, returning 1.50%, while its SPY benchmark returned 0.26%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was stronger than the benchmark as well, with USHQ outperforming by approx. 152bps....
China is providing limited stimulus, promoting tech and trade, and maintaining a tariff truce with the US in 2026. Structural flaws and great power struggle continue to cast dark clouds over the long run....
Our US equity strategists expect another year of gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, with returns capped by revenue growth as the bull market matures. The US economy is slowing but not contracting, pointing to positive but more modest equity returns. Equity performance should be increasingly driven b...
The US labor market remains weak but stable, leaving both labor conditions and US rates at a pivotal point. Given the partial government shutdown, Friday’s January employment report has been postponed to February 11. Alternative data show the US labor market remains in a “low hiring, low firing” mod...
The US residential real estate market remains soft. While the decline in mortgage rates is a positive, it is too early to bet on housing becoming the engine of growth for the US economy this year....
This week’s central bank meetings are a good reminder that monetary policy can still surprise. The Bank of England sounded more dovish, and the European Central Bank sounded complacent about the inflation undershoot. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates earlier this week. Investors s...
The US and Japan are in the same predicament: save the bond market or save the stock market? How this predicament will be resolved is the biggest global macro call of 2026-27. Plus: a new tactical trade is to go short AUD/JPY....
Sell America? No. The GeoMacro trade is Buy RoW! Left-tail risks are easing because the US isn’t collapsing. That argues for less enthusiasm for safe havens, not selling US assets. The S&P 500 can perform while remaining underweight the US – it happened in 2025 and will happen again....
