WTI is relatively calm amid the current conflict in the Middle East. Markets are too complacent on US crude relative to other international benchmarks. ...
Our GeoMacro strategists argue that prevailing market narratives around the Gulf conflict rest on three flawed assumptions. First, that the UAE’s role as a financial hub is at risk; second, that Iran can sustain a closure of the Strait of Hormuz; and third, that the conflict is primarily about press...
European sentiment plunged in March, reflecting vulnerability to higher energy prices. The ZEW expectations index fell sharply to -8.5 from 39.4 at the Euro Area level and to -0.5 from 58.3 in Germany. German current conditions were better than estimates but remain deeply pessimistic at -62.9. The d...
Higher oil prices threaten the global economy, warranting an underweight stance on equities. Over the long haul, industrial metals will fare better than crude....
Forced to choose between growth and inflation, the Fed will save growth and the stock market rather than the 2 percent inflation target and the bond market....
The Fed will not cut rates again until core inflation trends lower. This remains likely as the tariff impact on goods inflation wanes, but the recent energy price shock could delay any meaningful downtrend....
This screener report builds on the macro risk portfolio framework developed in the US Equity Strategy and Equity Analyzer collaboration published on 9 March 2026. Here, we apply the framework to analyze recent Middle East hostilities and identify how bottom-up equity positioning should adapt as the ...
Overnight, the Israeli military reported that it managed to kill two high-profile Iranian leaders: the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the leader of the internal paramilitary group, the Basij. Meanwhile, the Gulf States reported more interceptions of drones and missiles from I...
The market narrative around the Gulf conflict rests on three flawed myths: the UAE is not “finished,” Iran cannot close Hormuz indefinitely, and the war is not fundamentally about China....
