Volatility is high, but the path for yields is clearer than it looks. Across three oil scenarios, we show how policy responses shape fixed income markets and why the balance of risks still points to lower yields....
When the ceasefire between Iran and the US was announced on April 8, several clients told us that their geopolitical consultants were pitching a bearish narrative. The US had set up the two-week ceasefire to surge more material and troops to the region, so as to set up the next phase of the conflict...
The long-run rise in S&P 500 margins reflects more than a shift toward higher-margin sectors. Most of the increase has come from higher profitability within sectors, supported by favorable mix of macro forces. Looking ahead, many of those tailwinds are likely to fade, with AI-driven productivity...
Uranium’s bull market remains intact, supported by structural supply deficits, rising nuclear demand, and tightening fuel-cycle constraints. The Iran war reinforces energy security concerns while disrupting key inputs like sulfur, exacerbating supply risks. With contracting strengthening and policy ...
The labor market showed signs of reviving in the first three months of this year, but it is yet to be determined how consumers will react to the energy supply shock. We reiterate our benchmark asset allocation recommendations, but are skeptical that S&P 500 earnings growth will meet outsized exp...
President Trump has announced that the US would impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, in effect exacerbating the partial blockade that has already been in place due to Iran’s threats against shipping in the Persian Gulf. The threat comes after the direct negotiations between Iran and the US in ...
In this report, we deviate from our base case and instead assume that there is an immediate improvement in Hormuz traffic. This exercise allows us to explore how the global oil supply shortfall could eventually be offset if the right conditions are in place....
Inflation’s underlying trend was headed lower prior to the Iran war. This makes the recent back-up in bond yields look like an attractive buying opportunity....
The relief rally in stocks can continue a while longer. However, much can still go wrong. As such, we are retaining a 12-month underweight to stocks but are moving to neutral on a short-term tactical horizon....
Outside Asian semiconductor producers, EM corporate earnings and profitability have seen little improvement. Despite the ceasefire in the Middle East, the medium-term outlook for EM stocks is still unattractive....
