Our Global Asset Allocation strategists upgrade equities to overweight at the expense of cash, moving EU equities from overweight to underweight while upgrading the US to neutral. Our colleagues argue AI remains the central market thesis despite the oil shock. Recent hyperscaler results reinforce th...
The April Conference Board survey beat estimates, with both current conditions and expectations improving. Consumer confidence rose to 92.8 from 92.2, when consensus expected a pullback. Consumers’ assessment of their present situation was mostly flat after positive revisions to the prior month, whi...
Central banks remain on hold amid heightened uncertainty. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitors to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies....
The surprisingly solid ceasefire between Iran, the US, Israel, and GCC countries broke on May 4 with a ballistic missile and drone attack against the UAE. According to reports, UAE defense forces intercepted 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four drones, launched by Iran. ...
The UAE’s exit from OPEC is unlikely to impact oil markets in 2026. Over the longer term, however, the emergence of an “anti-OPEC club” of producers favoring unconstrained oil output growth would create a headwind to crude prices and weaken the price floor that OPEC seeks to defend....
Leadership has rotated toward investment-driven sectors, reflected in both EPS growth and price performance. Expanding margins suggest the cycle may have longer to run, as productivity gains start to work their way through fundamentals. We continue to see upside for the S&P 500, with no change t...
So far, there is no evidence of second-round effects from the oil price shock showing up in the US economy. Fed rate hikes are off the table unless those effects emerge....
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Even if the Strait were to open tomorrow, global consumers will be squeezed for the rest of the year. However, AI capex is accelerating, and signs of ROI are emerging. This capex boom will keep the world from an economic downturn. Upgrade equities to overweight a...
In Section I, Doug compares projected S&P 500 earnings and current capex to past cycles at the same stage of their expansions while also exploring the K-shaped bifurcation in business investment. In Section II, Mathieu argues that Australia and Canada are unloved, undervalued, and on t...
This Special Report argues that Australia and Canada are unloved, undervalued, and on the cusp of a structural re-rating. Long-term investors who wait for the catalysts to become obvious will miss the entry point....
