Insights

The world has descended into a full blown Doomer panic since the 27-year-old Anthropic engineer quit over the threat that AI would cause human extinction. Now-famous Jacob Coxon posted that “The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a ma...

The situation in the Middle East is becoming complicated. Over the past week, several events raise the odds that Brent prices could burst through their 2026 high of $126 per barrel....

The rise of remote work, online dating, and other demographic changes are increasing the demand for aesthetics. GLP-1s provide an effective and inexpensive cure for obesity, and their secondary effect “Ozempic face” has structurally altered the demand for aesthetic procedures and skincare. Long GLP-...

Scott Bessent’s attempts to suppress yields while financing large twin deficits risk crashing foreign inflows, the dollar, US bonds, and equities. Without a major equity selloff or large-scale commercial bank purchases of Treasurys, the bond selloff will persist – producing a major equity drawdown a...

We remain constructive on US equities, but higher yields, slower EPS growth and heavy IPO issuance remain significant risks to valuations, leaving the path to our year-end target increasingly dependent on earnings. Tactically, there has already been a significant, but benign, compression in multiple...

August’s 0.3% increase in core CPI breaks inflation’s 3-month downtrend and is likely hot enough for the Fed to hike rates when it meets next week....

The ECB is winning, and almost nobody's pricing it in. A flatter Phillips curve, a shrinking term premium, a euro built to shrug off France, credibility is the trade....

Thursday's sharp pullback in the COMEX copper price from an all-time high underscores a key risk to the red metal's resilience. An eventual resolution of US copper tariff uncertainty would likely trigger a price relapse. That drawdown, however, would offer an attractive opportunity to increase struc...

Foreign exchange markets are shaped by a wide range of macro influences. The sheer breadth of relevant information makes systematically assessing where a currency stands at any point in time a challenging analytical task. We introduce an FX scorecard that condenses the full range of data into nine t...