Insights

According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the stock market outperformance in 2024 thus far is an unusual pattern in election years. The historical data imply that the market will suffer a spill if investors come to believe the incumbent party will change. The spike in volatility i...

Brent prices have fallen 6% so far in July, reversing their June gains. Interestingly, these losses are occurring despite escalating Middle East tensions and quickening Chinese industrial profit growth in June (see The Numbers), both of which are supportive developments for oil prices.Within th...

According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents one of the greatest cyclical risks to investors. A key question for investors is whether tariffs are prioritized early in the administration or saved for later. Our colleagues expect...

The S&P 600 and Russell 2000 have outperformed the S&P 500 by close to 10% since July 9. Small caps typically outperform in the early stages of economic expansions when growth is accelerating, demand-driven inflation is rising and lending standards are easing. Why are they rallying now that ...

UK’s CPI growth stands right on the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target. However, services inflation remains sticky, growing at a constant 5.7% y/y in June. Moreover, the deceleration in wage growth remains insufficient to temper inflationary pressures in the services sector. Our European Investm...

The PBoC lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70% on Monday. The 5-year and 1-year loan prime rates declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.85% and 3.35%, respectively. However, this 10-bps cut is unlikely to have any meaningful stimulative effect on the overall economy. Not only ...

The four ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have fallen in absolute terms over the past year despite the powerful rally in the developed markets. They have also underperformed their EM benchmark. Our Emerging Markets strategists posit that ASEAN stocks and ...

BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service remained tactically bullish on stocks for most of 2023, but shifted to neutral at the start of 2024, and downgraded stocks to underweight in late June. Its latest report fleshes out the team’s thinking in Q&A format. Our Global Investment co...

BCA Research has been writing extensively on how consumption fueled by excess savings has been propping up the US economy and prevented a recession in 2023. Now, many estimates of pandemic-era excess savings show that they have run out. While consumption is still robust, with June retail sales easil...

According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Trump’s agenda is structurally inflationary and would eventually be needed to be discounted by markets, if he wins. Most retail investors – and many clients – seem to believe that Trump will win and the stock market will boom. Opinion p...